Adobe Digital Index Predicts Expendables 3 Box Office Bomb

Ever since Cannes, the event that was supposed to set The Expendables 3 hype machine on fire, what with all of those theatrics and tanks and what not, the opposite seems to have happened.  This is in no small part down to Sylvester Stallone revealing that same weekend that the movie will likely be PG-13.
That was no coincidence by the way, see Knight Rider’s excellent article, put up in a timely fashion one hour after that announcement on the same day: PG-13 – How The Treachery Was Deliberately Timed.

The ADI (Adobe Digital Index) has now given its verdict on The Expendables 3.  It (the ADI) is a formula developed by Adobe to predict the performance of a particular movie by monitoring the health of its hype via social media buzz, trailer hits etc.  And it has made a prediction, based off of these factors and data, that The Expendables 3 is going to bomb this summer.  Adobe claims a 100% accuracy rate, correctly predicting the results of Enders Game, 47 Ronin and Delivery Man.

It gets worse though assuming this is accurate.  The criteria was measured between March 1st and May 10th.  This was before the Cannes bombshell.  So if it is correct then it suggests that The Expendables was already in a state of poor health, publicity wise, before the big hit that it sustained just weeks ago.  So going by those calculations, and considering how badly people are responding to the PG-13 announcement, it can only add to argument put forth by Adobe.

Of course, the term “bomb” is a very subjective one.  I think many expect, correctly, that this movie will suffer.  But just how badly is another case.  It could be an outright bomb, it could make a profit and still earn the title of bomb if it doesn’t meet the first two movies financially.  There’s a mindset that although Bullet to the Head and The Last Stand surprised some by bombing, that The Expendables 3 is “too big to fail”.  That is going to be put to the test very soon…