Tough Competition For The Expendables 3 This Summer

It originally looked like The Expendables 3 would breeze though its release and break that quarter of a billion barrier once again.  After the PG-13 furore over The Expendables 2 and the recanting back to an “R”, it looked like they’d learned a lesson.  Well we all know what happened there.  They’re gambling, call the bluff of the core fan base.  Make the movie PG-13 and they’ll still go see it with the benefit of a new audience coming in too.

This is more likely to backfire than succeed.  From last weeks comments posted on here and on other relevant sites such as Expendables Premiere, the reaction has been overwhelmingly negative.  Meanwhile, ask the next 12 year old you see for his opinion on Wesley Snipes’ comeback.  See what kinda reaction you get.  That said, speaking of kids… if you are a kid, or a young family headed out to see a movie together this summer, what are you likely to see?  Do you think the kids are going to appease the dad and go see old guys they’ve never heard of, or are the parents going to appease the kids and go see the big hitters?  Because there are a few of ’em out there.

Let’s start with Hercules with The Rock.  The Rock is one of the most highly paid actors in Hollywood. Kids know who he is, easy – he’s the guy who beat John Cena.  And Hercules is a family movie.  It releases on the 25th July, not quite concurrent with EX3 – not in the U.S. anyway, but close enough and concurrent with most countries in Europe for example.  Kids and families will choose this, bank on it.  Hell some adults who otherwise would’ve paid to see EX3 might too.

How about Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles?  This one releases the week before The Expendables 3.  Whadya say prepubescents, Megan Fox or Rhonda Rousey?  There’s that strange look again.  Who the fuck is Rhonda Rousey?  Leonardo or a planeload of old guys?  C’mon, even I have an interest in that movie – marginally.  I’m of those age groups that grew up on the old cartoon and 1990 movie while watching Die Hard and Rambo.  And many people my age are now fathers…

So do the math here.  You have an age bracket that absolutely will not convert, kids, and an age bracket that if anything will turn their noses up at The Expendables 3 – adult males seeking refuge who realise that their movie has been watered down.  What might many of these people do?  Hold out for Sin City: A Dame To Kill For possibly?  That movie comes out one week after The Expendables 3.  It’ll be Rated-R and ironically feature former Expendables stars Bruce Willis and Mickey Rourke.  The real target demographic of EX3 knows who these guys are and wants to see them in “R” movies.  Kids don’t know who Stallone, Ford, Willis or any of the others are and don’t want to see them in any movie, regardless if it’s PG-13 or not.

So The Expendables 3, which would’ve faced stiff competition with the above even as an R-Rated movie, will now face even harsher competition with the Stallone/Lerner hubris gamble.  And you know what, maybe a good beating at the box office is what is needed…